The New York Yankees have been managing Aaron Judge’s injury situation carefully since a bone bruise near his right rib cage kept him out of the lineup earlier this week. The hope was that rest would be enough. The specialist visit told a different story.

Judge has been diagnosed with a stress fracture of the first rib on his right side. The timeline for his return is at least four to six weeks, a window that effectively rules him out through most of June and into July. For a Yankees team in the middle of an AL East race, the absence stings.

For the AL MVP race, the diagnosis changes everything.

What the Injury Means for Judge’s MVP Hopes

Judge entered this week as the odds-on favorite to win a third consecutive AL MVP award. A three-peat would have placed him alongside some of the most exclusive company in baseball history, with only Barry Bonds and Shohei Ohtani having won three straight MVP awards and four overall. He was also chasing history as the first American League player to win three consecutive MVPs.

Before the injury, his numbers were still firmly in the conversation. Judge was hitting .248/.375/.533 with 17 home runs — production that carried real weight despite a slight dip from his previous two seasons. The stress fracture has ended that conversation for now. Judge’s MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook dropped to 150/1 following the diagnosis. The race that looked like his to lose is now wide open.

Who Steps Into the Conversation

With Judge sidelined, the AL MVP race has become one of the most compelling award markets of the season. Kansas City Royals infielder Bobby Witt Jr. and Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez sit as the current frontrunners, separated by the slimmest of margins in the odds.

And then there is Judge’s own teammate. Ben Rice has been one of the breakout stories of the 2026 season, hitting 17 home runs with the second-best OPS in baseball at 1.030. Rice currently sits third in the MVP odds but is well within striking distance if he continues at this pace over the coming months.

The idea of a Yankees player winning the AL MVP in Judge’s absence would be a remarkable storyline. Rice has the numbers to make it happen.

As one observer put it on X: “so with judge out for a month+ who’s winning AL mvp? lots to consider here ”

What It Means for the Yankees

Losing Judge for four to six weeks is a significant blow to a Yankees team navigating a tight AL East race. New York has shown the depth to manage short absences, but a month-plus without their captain and best hitter requires the rest of the roster to carry more of the load.

Rice has already been doing exactly that. Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Paul Goldschmidt have contributed around him. The rotation has been solid when healthy. The Yankees are built well enough to stay afloat.

Whether they can maintain their position in the standings until Judge returns is the question that will define their summer.

Final Word

Aaron Judge was chasing history. A stress fracture took that chase off the table, at least for now.

The AL MVP race is wide open in a way it hasn’t been all season. Rice is making his case. Witt Jr. and Alvarez are making theirs.

Judge will be back. By then, the race may already be decided.