Jacob deGrom has long been synonymous with one of baseball’s most electrifying fastballs, a pitch that has propelled him to two National League Cy Young Awards and established him as a formidable force on the mound. Even as injuries have taken their toll over the years, including a Tommy John surgery with the Rangers in 2023, deGrom’s reputation remains largely untarnished.
He’s been working to refine his off-speed arsenal, leaning more on his slider, yet when the moment calls for it, he can still unleash a heater that leaves batters guessing. This season, deGrom’s four-seam fastball is averaging a blistering 97.1 mph.
However, there’s a storm cloud hanging over deGrom’s otherwise impressive pitching career-a trend that began to shadow him late last season. While his fastball is as lively as ever, hitters are starting to capitalize on it more frequently, and both deGrom and the Rangers have reason to be concerned.
Case in point: On Monday, Angels slugger Zach Neto turned on one of deGrom’s fastballs, sending it over the fence for his ninth home run of the season. Shortly thereafter, Wade Meckler followed suit with a three-run blast, also courtesy of a deGrom fastball.
The velocity was there-97.1 mph to Neto and 97.9 mph to Meckler-but the location was not. Neto’s homer came off a pitch dead center in the zone, while Meckler’s was slightly up and right-middle, both prime real estate for hitters.
Rangers manager Skip Schumaker summed it up succinctly, pointing out to the Rangers Sports Network, “It’s missed location. Balls were up out and over the heart of the plate, and Major League hitters do damage on those pitches.
It doesn’t matter who is on the mound. Even a pitcher like Jacob deGrom is going to get hit if those pitches are left out over the middle.”
A dive into deGrom’s Statcast data paints a telling picture. This year, he’s surrendered 12 home runs, nine of which have been off his fastball.
Notably, just one of those nine pitches was low in the zone. The rest found their way to the danger zones-either dead center or elevated but still hittable.
This isn’t a new issue for deGrom. Last season, despite being named the AL Comeback Player of the Year in his return from surgery, he wrestled with a home run problem, giving up 26 dingers-the second-most in his career. His peak was 28 homers in 2017, the year before he snagged his first Cy Young Award in 2018, a season where he only allowed 10 home runs.
In 2025, deGrom was tagged for nine home runs by May, then tightened up his game until July when the long balls started to pile up again. By the end of the season, his fastball had been taken deep 16 times, but only four of those were in the middle of the zone. Fast forward to this season, and he’s already matched that number.
Recently, deGrom endured just the second four-homer game of his career. Out of 10 starts, he’s only managed to keep the ball in the park in three of them.
His Statcast profile is a study in contrasts. Across many metrics, he shines, but his fastball’s run value sticks out like a sore thumb.
It’s sitting at minus-2, placing him in the 25th percentile in baseball-a stark contrast to his first Cy Young season when his fastball run value was a robust 20, landing him in the 98th percentile. Interestingly, his average fastball velocity was actually a tick lower back then.
The takeaway here is clear: it’s not about how fast deGrom throws, but where he throws it. For both the Rangers and deGrom, addressing this issue is paramount. It’s a problem that needs fixing, and the sooner, the better.
