Lance McCullers Jr.’s latest trip to the injured list might just be the opportunity the Houston Astros needed to reevaluate their rotation strategy. With McCullers sidelined, he becomes the fourth member of their Opening Day rotation to hit the IL, offering the team a moment to pause and consider their next move.
McCullers’ struggles this season have been evident. With eight starts under his belt, he’s sporting a hefty 6.86 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP, alongside 22 walks in just 39.1 innings. Despite a couple of outings that seemed promising-like his recent appearance against Seattle-his overall performance has been shaky, allowing 11 runs over his last 14 innings.
The tough decision facing the Astros is one that’s been looming for a while. It might be time to consider moving McCullers out of the rotation.
There’s no sugarcoating it-McCullers is having a rough go. His ERA is high, he’s getting hit hard, and his .374 wOBA allowed is telling. While some advanced metrics hint at potential improvement, they’re skewed by an outlier performance against the Orioles, where he racked up nine strikeouts against a struggling lineup.
This isn’t a new issue, either. Last season, McCullers posted a 6.51 ERA with reduced velocity, and those red flags are now glaring.
Over the past two seasons, he’s made 21 starts (24 appearances) but has only set career highs in home runs per nine innings and home runs per fly ball. The pitcher who once dazzled in the postseason isn’t the same anymore.
Blaming shoulder inflammation for his 2026 woes doesn’t hold much weight when last year’s numbers paint a similar picture. After a lengthy absence, McCullers returned with fans rooting for him, but his velocity was down, and his command faltered. His once-reliable ground ball rate has continued to decline.
This spring, McCullers announced he would focus less on strikeouts and adjust his pitching style-a move that raised eyebrows. Fast forward a couple of months, and the results haven’t been favorable.
His ground-ball rate has plummeted, and both Statcast data and visual assessments confirm he’s struggling to put hitters away. Meanwhile, he’s carrying a $17.7 million salary and another IL stint.
The Astros, sitting at 20-31 and only kept from the bottom of the American League by the Angels, are in a tough spot. Their starters have the fifth-worst ERA in baseball, and they’ve already cycled through 13 different pitchers. With Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier also on the IL, the temptation is there to keep McCullers in the mix simply because they need arms.
But that’s a trap they should avoid. The Astros need more than just innings; they need a clear path forward. Options like Jason Alexander, Mike Burrows, and Kai-Wei Teng are already in the mix, and while none are sure bets, they offer more potential upside than McCullers has shown recently.
Sentimentality might argue for keeping McCullers active-after all, he’s in the final year of a five-year extension, a two-time World Series champ, and recently notched his 900th strikeout, becoming the fastest in Astros history (by innings) to do so. However, as the season slips away and the rotation auditions new faces, sentimentality is a luxury the Astros can’t afford.
The IL stint provides a natural exit ramp. It’s time for the Astros to take it and focus on finding pitchers who can contribute to their future success.
The numbers have spoken, and the latest injury only solidifies the need for change.
